How much will my royalty check decline? (Oil royalty / gas royalty)

Mineral rights owners usually own the right to the royalty right -- royalties. There is a provision in an oil and gas lease for this. It's commonly a minimum of one-eighth of the well's production, multiplied times their share in the production unit. (In modern wells, they are usually pooled with neighboring parcels into a production unit. Average production unit size is 640 acres, but it can be larger, say 960 acres or 1,280 acres.

Let's take a hypothetical royalty owner who has sufficient acreage in a production unit such that when the well first comes in, it is paying him $1,000 per month. Nice! How long will it stay at $1,000/month? Impossible to say, it might be one month, three or four months, or more. Usually a month or two. (This also depends on how the operator is producing the well. They might keep the well production up for a few months using different choke sizes at the wellhead. Anyway, at some point, it will start to decline. In today's resource plays and shale plays such as the Bakken, Barnett, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, Marceullus, Utica, Niobrara, Cline, etc., like the tight sands drilling of the past couple of decades, these reservoir rocks are very tight (dense) and they must be fracked to get the oil or gas out. The word "frack" is short for "hydraulic fracture" and this (along with horizontal drilling) is what makes modern oil and gas exploration tick. And since these shales or tight sands are not very permeable, the nature of the beast is that production drops off much more rapidly than in a conventional (say, permeable sandstone, limestone or dolomite) reservoir.

How fast? Generally these modern wells will drop 50-85% during the first year. Then, say, 35-50% the second year. It will flatten out some after that but it will always be decreasing over time. Bottom line is that 2-3 years later, one's royalty check is usually only about 5 to 10% of what it was in the beginning. So, plan accordingly and do not get used to the big checks for any oil or gas well, because they will NOT last! Enjoy it while you got it!

Here is a production chart from a well I looked at recently that is actually pretty good. Two years later, it's producing 20% of it's initial rate. That's good for these type wells! This is a Haynesville shale well.

WELL #1

This next Haynesville shale well exhibits a more normal production decline shape where it declines rapidly in year 1 and flattens out. Two years later, it is only producing a small fraction of its initial production rate.

WELL #2

We don't know how long these wells will produce because these new resource plays are pretty new. Operators say they'll produce for decades and I hope that's true but operators love to toot their horns because they are trying to please stockholders. We just don't know. I do know that I have looked at quite a few wells that dropped off like a rock and they will not last but a few years. There is no way they can continue much longer, as they are barely scraping a profit right now, and still declining. I am hoping that in the "sweet spots," where production is good, the wells will behave as operators predict and last for a long time once they start their flattened decline rate. Time will tell! Welcome to the oil patch, risk is everywhere! Including risks such as the reservoir rock fractures closing once the reservoir pressure is reduced to a certain point. If the fractures close, gas entry to the wellbore could largely shut down and it would be over. (They'd have to plug and abandon the well.) Scary! (Scary because we don't know!)

But, we also have the benefit of being in an amazing technological revolution, so, who knows what they will come up with twenty years from now!

As for one's particular royalty check income stream, if the income is sufficient, one can just hold what they got. But, if one ever gets to the point that he doesn't want to deal with the paperwork or deal with small checks and would just rather cash out and get a lump sum, or perhaps he needs money for whatever reason, an option is sell for a lump sum cash settlement. For info, here is a website for selling royalty rights.

Good luck, I hope they hit a gusher on your place and you get rich as Jed Clampett!